WallStreetJackass

catastrophism

a good point from Barcap, 

I admit to him that I remain afraid of the downside risks given that the world feels very vulnerable. His comeback is reassuring. He reminds me that the world never feels safe, that when you feel safe it’s a mirage, that in mid-2001 folks felt safest in decades and it was right before the worst terrorist attack in American history. He reminds me of our youth where we had regular fall-out shelter drills in case of nuclear attacks. He reminds me of Sputnik and Bay of Pigs and the shock Americans felt after Pearl Harbor. That folks in the U.S. felt isolated from the world’s problems and safe in 1940 until the end of 1941. That in 1987 markets crashed, that in the early 1990s the S&L crisis threatened all financial institutions and drove us into recession, that Mexico almost dragged us down in 1994, that Long-Term Capital Management almost demolished the entire financial system in 1998 and that in 1999 folks predicted the end of the world with Y2K. The year 2001 brought the end

of the tech bubble and in the fall of 2008 we were close to heading into financial catastrophe.

put these people in a box.

Dozens of State Department officials this week protested against U.S. policy in Syria, signing an internal document that calls for targeted military strikes against the Damascus government and urging regime change as the only way to defeat Islamic State. WSJ

That sounds about as likely as claiming overthrowing Saddam will destroy Al Qaeda. Oh, it did the opposite? My bad, next country... 

Unfortunately this is also the foreign policy you get with Clinton. Stupid people. 

I don't have a dog in this fight, but

insider joke, but funny to me...

cool, sort of like a virus.

The Spread of the Gospel from Western Conservatory on Vimeo.

Foreign Policy rule of thumb for the next 60 days

If you thought/think that invading Iraq and replacing Saddam with a Shiite government friendly to Iran was a good idea, you don't get to criticize the Iran nuclear deal.  

The stupid

I didn't vote in the last election*, but it's going to be hilarious to watch the GOP tear themselves in knots over whether Iraq was ever going to turn out well. 

 

* your vote is meaningless in New York state. 

what really happened to Bin Laden

Breaking news! Governments lie!

I have no doubt this is true. But I don't much care in any case.

Good journalism though. 

A New Yorker's view of Giuliani

Having visited here before (when the city was a mess) and lived here during and after 9/11 (when it bounced back amazingly), on balance Rudy Giuliani was obviously a good mayor.

The "balance" being that we've had two liberal mayors since him and things have only continued to improve so it's hard not to say he was mostly lucky. Also the guy is personally a disgusting degenerate - most people would be satisfied with only abandoning one family per lifetime.

The shame of it is now he just comes across as a crazy sidewalk political hack , one who sells access to foreign governments on the side.

Jeff Gundlach is wrong

Gundlach's presentation stating the S&P has never risen 7 years in a row - therefore presumably won't go up in 2015 and you should buy some more of his bond funds - has been getting some attention lately. 

But in fact you only need to go back to the 1990's to discover that the return on the S&P was positive 9 years in a row.

Ironically enough for a bond manager, the King of Bonds no less, this is because Gundlach ignores the yield on the S&P. 

Now I don't know whether the market is going up, down or sidewise this year. But the S&P dividend yield is higher than the 10-year right now, so I certainly wouldn't be buying what Gundlach is selling. Especially if it's secondhand, ugh.